Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Times Square was not only the most visited place in America, but the most visited place in the world, according to Historic Towns of America. Four years after lockdowns decimated New York’s tourism industry, visits are beginning to rebound, with nearly 300,000 visitors a day in 2023, according to the Times Square Alliance Annual Report.

But a study by the Wiseman Law Firm suggests this increase in tourism could be responsible for a recent spike in Midtown crime.  

“People (want) to come back to the city to see a show, go to a restaurant, go to a museum. This makes the area really target-friendly for bad guys,” said Michael Alcazar, a professor at John Jay College who is also a former New York City Detective.

The New York Police Department released crime statistics in July that showed a slight, three to four percent decrease in robbery and burglary citywide and a 12% decrease in assaults. But Midtown Precinct North, which includes Times Square, has seen dramatic spikes. CrimeStat Data shows that robbery there is up 75%, burglary is up 54%, and felony assault is up 66% from 2023 to 2024. 

The problem, police say, is there aren’t enough officers. “The NYPD has seen historically high attrition over the past four years, with more cops leaving and fewer coming in,” the Police Benevolent Association told CBS News in March. According to the city’s Independent Budget Office, 2,931 officers either quit or retired last year, with only 2,345 recruits.

According to the NYPD website, there are currently approximately 34,000 reported officers in the department. But Alcazar said he believes current NYPD numbers are even lower than are being reported. “When I retired in December 2019, I think we had about 40,000 police officers. From what my friend who still works in the police department says, we’re down to like 26,000, and I don’t think they’re releasing that information.” The NYPD did not respond to a request to comment on these numbers.

“There have been a record number of retirements and smaller NYPD cadet classes,” said Christopher Herrmann, an associate professor in the College of Law at John Jay College, and former Crime Analyst at the NYPD. “Some feel that the NYPD is a little understaffed when compared to a few years ago.”

“We’re losing all the senior people. We’re losing all the talent,” Alcazar agreed. “So now we’re basically dealing with young people right out of the academy. You need a little bit of mentorship, and I think we’re missing that.” 

Another CBS News article cited the hundreds of senior officers who have retired, leaving a strain on officers covering multiple cases at a time, as well as young officers operating with less training. Alcazar said the decrease in officers and experience could be contributing to the increase in crime.

“Not only are we short on patrol officers, meaning the boots on the ground, but investigations are suffering because we just don’t have enough investigators turning up because they’re doing patrol work, and I think that’s part of the problem,” Alcazar said.

“We certainly advocate for additional resources to be spent on these areas, whether that be a public safety component, or whether that would be a human service component,” said Jesse Bodine, the District Manager of Manhattan Community Board #4 which covers part of Midtown Precinct North. “We have recognized the community feels that public safety has become a priority,” he said.

The NYPD is also currently operating under an interim commissioner, Tom Donlon after previous commissioner Edward Caban resigned in mid-September after only 18 months in the position. Alcazar said confusion in leadership could affect those on the front lines. 

A number of studies have found a relationship between police organizational style and police effectiveness, according to a study in the Police Journal of the U.S. Department of Justice. The study showed that police organizational style can often be as important as the number of police on a force. A professional police department with an emphasis on a strong crime control team with officers patrolling the ground is much more effective than a department with less emphasis on hands-on law enforcement.

In a recent interview, Mayor Eric Adams announced that the search for a permanent NYPD Police Commissioner is ongoing.